At the high-level dialogue of the 4th Vietnam Economic Forum themed “Building up a resilient, independent and deeply integrated economy in the new landscape” that took place in Ho Chi Minh City on June 5, Dr. Vu Thanh Tu Anh, Director of Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management (FSPPM) delivered his remarks on the challenges for Vietnam’s economy in 2022 due to the influence of the global economic downturn.

The Vietnam Economic Forum (VEF) is an annual event that has been organized by the Central Economic Committee since 2027. This year, along with a series of workshops, VEF hosts a high-level dialogue with the participation of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, senior officials, economic experts from Asian Development Bank (ADB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and local institutions.

Dr. Vu Thanh Tu Anh delivers his remarks at the 4th Vietnam Economic Forum. Photo: Nhat Bac/VGP

From the perspectives of a researcher, Dr. Tu Anh made his comments on the challenges for Vietnam’s economy, fueled by global challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine war making indirect impacts on energy and food prices and causing supply chain disruptions.

On the other hand, Vietnam should still pay attention to inflation rate, which has gone up to 8 percent in developed countries, despite the fact that it has not shown warning signs in Vietnam.

There are three reasons why Vietnam’s inflation rate is not high. First, given Vietnam’s trade openness, the country needs some time to “import” inflation. Second, Vietnam’s economic growth rate is not high, so is the inflation rate. Third, Vietnam is not affected by the surging prices of food as much as other countries in the world since Vietnam is a food exporter,” Dr. Tu Anh explained.

He mentioned economic downturn as one of the major challenges for Vietnam’s economy due to the reliance on the global economy; accordingly, the global economic downturn may badly affect Vietnam’s economy.

Dr. Tu Anh listed three factors that are putting huge pressure on Vietnam’s economy: inflation, financial and fiscal problems, especially bad debts, and the threats to growth prospects caused by the pandemic, the war, the supply chain disruptions and monetary contractions.

As a researcher, he also gave positive reviews on Vietnam’s macroeconomic management in the past two years.

Vietnam is still stable in a turbulent world. To put it another way, Vietnam is a shelter in the time of storm… For the first time in 20 years, we’ve managed to safeguard macroeconomic stability despite external shocks,” he commented.

👉 Click here to read more about the high-level dialogue on the government portal:

On 9th April 2019, Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management together with World Bank and Australian Aid organized a workshop on Vietnam economic growth model.

The workshop honorably received World Bank economists and members of Prime Minister Economic Advisory Group and other researchers and scholars. Keynote presentations featured Dr. Sebastian Eckardt, Lead Economist, World Bank Group in Vietnam and Dr. Vu Viet Ngoan, Former Head, PM Economic Advisory Group.

Participants focused on discussing problems of the old growth model and characteristics and suggested strategies for successful adoption of the new model. Briefly looking at the past achievemnets, despite 25 years of uninterrupted rapid growth, Vietnam’s per capita GDP at $2385 is still only about 40 percent of the global average.

Vietnam needs to sustain real GDP growth of at least 7 percent over the next 25 years to achieve high income status by 2045. Despite the specified objective, Vietnam maintained average growth rate of around 6.8 percent in the past 25 years. This implies uncertainty in continuing past achievements into the future.

Through extensive discussion, experts agreed that future economic drivers are an innovative ecosystem backed by sound policies.

More specifically, an efficient financial market is required to reduce the cost of financing and efficiently allocate domestic savings into profitable sectors. Furthermore, innovative economy demands a workforce with 21st century skills.

Developing an inclusive and competitive vocational training system and world class universities not only ensure competitiveness but also enable people to participate productively in a rapidly growing economy.

From 17-18 January 2019, Dr. Vu Thanh Tu Anh, Dean of Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, attended Vietnam Economic Forum 2019 (VEF).

Continuing the success of the 1st and 2nd VEF in previous years, the 2019 VEF, featuring the main theme “Strengthening the fundamental drivers for rapid and sustainable growth” welcomed more than 2000 participants who are policy makers, academics, businesses and international organizations.

In 2019 VEF, Dr. Tu Anh moderated the Plenary Session and High-level Policy Dialogue titled “Vietnam Economy 2018 in Review and Orientation for 2019 – Strengthening the fundamental drivers for rapid and sustainable growth”. The panelists include Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Chairman of Central Organizational Commission Pham Minh Chinh, Chairman of Central Economic Commission Nguyen Van Binh, Former US Foreign Secretary John Kerry, and representatives from World Bank, Asian Development Bank and International Monetary Fund.

The policy dialogue focused on Party and Government’s orientation for short and medium growth path, global and regional challenges and opportunities, escalating trade tensions between U.S. and China and its impact on emerging economies like Vietnam.

Moreover, panelists discussed measures to safeguard macroeconomic stability and promoting stronger, more inclusive and more sustainable growth, vigorous actions towards climate change, energy security and support for R&D and innovation to develop.